Individual states’ risk factors are often quantified and totaled up to reach an aggregate vulnerability score that, in turn, can be used to rank them against other countries. These factors include potential economic, social, and political sources of stress, as well as the capacity of the state to manage potential internal challenges or external shocks, including the loyalty of internal security forces, cohesion of the leadership, and the state of the nation’s coffers. A Fragile State?Īnalysts assessing the susceptibility of states to political instability often examine a basket of “ risk factors” generally believed to be associated with the onset of such events. What might trigger such events and how they could play out, including what the “day after” would look like, are likewise rarely examined. Much of it casually asserts that Saudi Arabia could be destabilized either from below, by rising popular unrest, or from above, by debilitating rivalries within the ruling royal family, with little or no discussion of which scenario is more likely. The bulk of commentary about Saudi Arabia’s stability falls into the former category. These questions are best addressed less by trying to divine what is happening inside Saudi Arabia, which is opaque to outside scrutiny, than by relying on what social scientists know about the causes of political instability and regime change, particularly in nondemocratic states. So is Saudi Arabia the proverbial dog that regularly barks but never bites? Or is there only a false sense of calm for now, before the underlying risks of instability suddenly materialize? Put differently, how worried should we be? It has weathered a major downturn in global oil prices and reduction of state revenues, managed what could have been a contentious royal succession, and prosecuted a costly military intervention in neighboring Yemen without facing major domestic blowback, all contrary to the expectations of many outside observers.
Yet for all the confident assertions that it is just a matter of time before the kingdom succumbs to internal unrest and even regime collapse, Saudi Arabia has remained one of the most stable countries in the region.
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